the black swan

The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto)

the black swan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Black_Swan_%28Taleb_book%29

nassim nicholas taleb:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb

the platonic fallacy:
narrative fallacy, ludic fallacy, statistical regress fallacy

ludic fallacy:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludic_fallacy